Umthombo ovela kwiWisdom Finance
I-Huatai Securities ikhuphe ingxelo yophando yokuba ukusukela ngoSeptemba, uthotho lweshishini le-pulp kunye nephepha lubone iimpawu ezintle ngakumbi kwicala lemfuno. Abavelisi bephepha abagqityiweyo ngokubanzi bavumelanise amazinga abo okuqala kunye nokunciphisa iimpahla.
Amaxabiso eepulp kunye nephepha ngokubanzi ayanyuka, kwaye inzuzo yecandelo leshishini iphucukile. Bakholelwa ukuba oku kubonisa inyani yokuba eli shishini alikude kakhulu kwinqanaba lokulingana kwemfuno-ubonelelo xa kuthelekiswa nemeko yexesha lonyaka eliphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, kwelinye icala, njengoko ixesha lokukhululwa kwemveliso ephezulu lingekadluli, ukuguquka kwemveliso kunye nemfuno kusenokuba kusesekutsha kakhulu.
NgoSeptemba, ezinye zeenkampani eziphambili kushishino zibhengeze ukucotha ekwakhiweni kwezinye iiprojekthi, ukukhula okuphezulu kwecandelo lokubonelela ngemibhobho yephepha kulindeleke ukuba kwahlukane ngo-2024, kwaye ukunikezelwa kweentlobo ezintsha zezinye iintlobo kulindeleke ukuba kucothe, nto leyo enceda ukulungelelaniswa kwakhona koshishino.
Ibhodi yebhokisi ekhonkxiweyo: iimpahla zephepha ezikwindawo yokugcina impahla zehle zaya kwinqanaba eliphantsi, nto leyo exhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso
Ngenxa yexesha lokusetyenziswa kakhulu kweMid-Autumn Festival kunye neNational Day kunye nokuzaliswa kwakhona kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhodi ebotshelelweyo kukhule kakhulu ukusukela ngoSeptemba. Indawo yokugcina impahla yehle ukusuka kwiintsuku ezili-14.9 ekupheleni kuka-Agasti ukuya kumndilili weentsuku ezi-6.8 (ukusukela nge-18 ka-Okthobha), inqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo.
Ukuhlaziywa kwexabiso lephepha kuye kwanda emva kukaSeptemba kwaye kuye kwanda kwakhona i-+5.9% ukusuka phakathi ku-Agasti. Ukukhula komthamo we-Boxboard corrugated kulindeleke ukuba kunciphe kakhulu ngo-2024 xa kuthelekiswa no-2023 njengoko iinkampani eziphambili zicothisa ukwakhiwa kwezinye iiprojekthi. Balindele ukuba amanqanaba aphantsi ezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo axhase amaxabiso e-corrugated board kwixesha eliphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, ukusukela ngo-Agasti, amandla amatsha emveliso akhawulezile, kwaye isiseko sokuguqulwa kobonelelo kunye nemfuno asikaqini, i-1H24 okanye kusafuneka sijongane novavanyo olunzima lwemarike.
Ibhodi ye-Ivory: ukunikezelwa kwempahla kunye nokuzinziswa kwemfuno ngexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo, ukothuka kokunikezelwa kwempahla kusondele
Ukususela ngoSeptemba,Ibhodi ye-C1s IvoryUkunikezelwa kwemarike kunye nemfuno zizinzile, ukusukela nge-18 ka-Okthobha, uluhlu lwezinto ezithengiswayo luthelekiswa nokuphela kuka-Agasti -4.4%, kodwa lusekwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ngenxa yokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso e-pulp spot yasekhaya kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, amaxabiso e-white cardboard anyuke kwakhona emva koSuku lweSizwe. Ukuba ukuphunyezwa kuyasebenza, amaxabiso e-white cardboard angoku kulindeleke ukuba abuye nge-12.7% xa kuthelekiswa naphakathi kuJulayi. Ngokugqitywa kokufakwa kwe-large scaleIkhadi loBugcisa eliMhlophe le-C2siiprojekthi eJiangsu, umjikelo olandelayo wokothuka kwempahla usondela, amaxabiso ekhadibhodi emhlophe ixesha lokulungisa lisenokungabi lininzi.
Iphepha lenkcubeko: ukubuya kwamaxabiso ukusukela ngoJulayi kubalulekile
Iphepha lenkcubeko lelona phepha ligqityiweyo ngokukhawuleza kakhulu elinokubuyiswa kwexabiso okukhawulezayo ukusukela ngo-2023, i-offsetiphephakwayeiphepha lobugcisaAmaxabiso anyuke nge-13.6% kunye ne-9.1%, ngokwahlukeneyo, xa kuthelekiswa naphakathi kuJulayi. Amandla amatsha emveliso yeiphepha lenkcubekoKulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwisiqhelo ngo-2024, kodwa u-2023 usekwincopho yokuqaliswa komthamo. Balindele ukuba kusekho iitoni eziyi-1.07 yezigidi ngonyaka eziza kufakwa kwimveliso ekupheleni konyaka, kwaye umngeni omkhulu wemarike usenokufika kwi-1H24.
Ixesha lePulp:Peak likhuthaza ukubuya kwexabiso lepulp, kodwa ukuqina kwemarike kuye kwehla
Kunye nokuphuculwa kwemfuno yexesha eliphakamileyo, zonke iintlobo zephepha eligqityiweyo zonwabele ukwehla ngokubanzi kwempahla kunye nokunyuka kwezinga lokuqalisa ngoSeptemba, imfuno ye-pulp yasekhaya nayo izuze koku, ekupheleni kwenyanga i-pulp stocks kwizibuko eziphambili zaseTshayina yehle nge-13% xa kuthelekiswa nokuphela kuka-Agasti, ukwehla okukhulu kwenyanga enye kulo nyaka. Ukwanda kwe-pulp yasekhaya ebanzi kunye ne-coniferous ukusukela ekupheleni kukaSeptemba, ngokwahlukeneyo, kwenyuke ngokukhawuleza nge-14.5% kunye ne-9.4%, ii-pulp mills ezinkulu zaseMzantsi Melika nazo zinyuse ixabiso le-pulp eTshayina ngoNovemba nge-7-8%).
Nangona kunjalo, emva koSuku lweSizwe, uxinano kwimarike yasekhaya luye lwehla njengoko imfuno ephantsi iye yehla kwimida kwaye abathengisi be-pulp abangenisa nabo baye bonyusa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla. Balindele ukuba u-2023-2024 ube yeyona ncopho yokuqaliswa komthamo we-pulp yamakhemikhali, kwaye uninzi lomthamo we-pulp entsha yempahla luvela kwimimandla yemveliso engabizi kakhulu, ukulungelelaniswa kwakhona kokunikezelwa kwe-pulp kunye nemfuno nako kusenokungagqitywa.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Novemba-04-2023